This means that the interpretation of trend estimate during the period affected by COVID-19 could be misleading. Currently it is not known whether the impacts of COVID-19 will be short or medium to long-term and therefore we cannot confidently assign it to the trend or not. If the impact is assigned to the trend then it will be visible in the trend, if not, then it will be not. To estimate the trend, significant events are assigned to either the trend, seasonal or irregular components of a time series. The rationale for suspending trend estimates during the COVID-19 period is that the trend estimate includes the medium to long direction of a time series, in contrast to the seasonal component (systematic and calendar related movements) and the irregular component (unsystematic and short term fluctuations). This page will be updated with key changes in the methods used to produce and disseminate ABS economic statistics during the COVID-19 period.
CASE TOTAL LOCKDOWN AUSTRALIAS LESSONS SERIES
Many data series continue to use forward factors for seasonal adjustment, with additional seasonal analysis being undertaken to monitor when concurrent seasonal adjustment can be reinstated.
The reinstatement of trend series will continue to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, considering the stability of the trend series. Trend series continue to be suspended.
monthly turnover and household spending indicators). National Accounts) as well as developing new insights (e.g. With the co-operation of public and private sector data providers, the ABS has access to new de-identified data sources such as Single Touch Payroll, and bank transaction data, which we are using in core economic statistics (e.g.We again thank businesses and households for responding to these important surveys during this difficult time. Achieving survey responses to key economic surveys remains challenging because of COVID-19, as businesses have reduced staffing capacity and/or work from home and reliance on face-to-face household data collection is impacted by COVID-19 public health orders.six yearly Household Expenditure Survey) as atypical data would have been collected. In addition to this some periodic surveys had to be delayed (e.g. This required the ABS to review existing methods and frameworks, develop new methods, pursue new public and private sector data sources, produce new insights and engage more frequently with international organisations. Since March 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has responded rapidly to meet Australia’s data needs and strategic priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 provides us with unprecedented times, which means that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), like other National Statistical Organisations, is reviewing a number of methodological areas to ensure we maintain the quality of our statistics during this period.
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